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Some Thoughts on Today's Deterrence Article

In a post this morning, we noted an article in the Wall Street Journal on a deterrence study from two professors at Pepperdine. Most of the recent studies have been from economists, so it is interesting that a pair of academics from outside that discipline have looked at the same problem and come to the same basic conclusion.

There are a couple of indicators that warrant caution here, though. The estimate they give of 74 lives saved per execution is an order of magnitude greater than most of the previous estimates. I haven't been able to find a "working paper" version of the study on SSRN or by other search methods. It is difficult to judge methodology from an op-ed, so I'd really like to see the full paper. The authors' use of "until now" in the paragraph quoted in our previous post seems to imply they are unaware of the previous deterrence work.

At this point, we will neither endorse nor reject this study, but wait until we have more information.

Update: Prof. Summers has responded to my inquiry, "This article [in the WSJ] is our only publication so far on this subject." He has also provided the data and calculations in spreadsheet form.

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