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Another Cal. AG Update

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Here is coverage of the continuing ballot count in the California Attorney General race:  Don Thompson for AP; Marisa Lagos in the SF Chron; Phil Willon in the LA Times.  Lagos quotes the consultants for both campaigns:

Everyone involved in the races is trying to spin it their way. On Wednesday, Harris' camp held a conference call where campaign manager Ace Smith expressed "confidence that we are going to win this race." In typical fashion, Smith was, um, anything but understated:

"We are, I think, witnessing history -- one of the most interesting upsets of political convention in California political history," he said. "You can clearly tell that in early returns we were down -- but we came roaring back...I believe we won on election day by about 3 percentage points based on our modeling -- that's critical because there are still absentee ballots to be counted, and those in the queue, generally speaking, reflect election day results."

Cooley consultant Kevin Spillane, meanwhile, sent out a memo late Thursday noting that Cooley carried 40 out of the state's 58 counties and saying that the "significance of that number is that there are more ballots to be tabulated in counties carried by Steve Cooley rather than in those counties carried by Kamala Harris." Spillane also stressed that Cooley was the top vote-getter among all Republicans on the statewide ticket (those other candidates, as we noted earlier, had a pretty dismal showing).

With apologies to Shakespeare, the first thing we should do is kill all the campaign consultants.  Both are wildly wrong.

If the uncounted ballots reflect election day results, then Harris didn't win by anywhere near 3 points.  It is a fractional-point race any way you slice it.  Also, early returns being more conservative than the final tally is not remotely an upset of convention.  It is the usual pattern.

Number of counties is irrelevant when counties vary widely in size.  Democrat-leaning Los Angeles is the 500-pound gorilla of California, but Republican-leaning San Diego and Orange are 300-pound gorillas.  Tiny Modoc County only matters if the gorillas cancel each other (which they might).

As of 8:53 Saturday morning, the Secretary of State is showing Cooley 22,817 votes ahead.  The unprocessed ballot report, updated 5:00 p.m. Friday, says there were 2,342,664 unprocessed ballots at that time.

Update to Update: The margin as of 9:14 11:51 a.m. Monday is 44,508 19,189 for Cooley.  The unprocessed ballot report has not been updated.  San Francisco, Santa Clara, and Ventura Counties updating in the most recent reports.

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This race shouldn't have even been close. What is wrong with people?

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