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USC Poll: Prop 34 Close

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Results of the latest USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Poll show the race for Prop 34 tightening.  When asked the straightforward question, "no" remains ahead, 42-45.  This poll then has the unusual feature of asking the same respondent about the same proposition after first reading the ballot language (which includes a hotly disputed financial assertion).  This is different from the "split sample" method, where half the sample is asked each of two different questions.  In this poll, a few people change their minds on the requestioning, putting the "yes" slightly ahead but less than a majority, 45-42 in the total sample but a razor thin 44-43 among likely voters.

Methodological questions aside, the history of polling on California initiatives is that measures with affirmative support this low this late rarely pass, whether the "yes" is ahead of or behind the "no."  Late-deciding voters tend to break toward "no," as noted in a prior post.

The cause of justice is still ahead, for now, but the financial advantage and favorable press of the friends of murderers remain cause for concern.

BTW, for those wondering what happened to the every-other-Thursday Business Roundtable/Pepperdine poll, they have broken from their usual pattern and will release their final poll next Tuesday.

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