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Election Notes

Over at 538, Nate Silver and crew now calculate that the Republican chances of a Senate majority are over 2 to 1, the first time they have crossed that threshold.  The 538 forecasts have been among the most favorable to the Democrats.  At the WaPo's Monkey Cage, it's 93%.  Looks good for "Goodbye, Chairman Leahy, hello Chairman Grassley."

Update:  Larry Sabato et al. weigh in along the same lines.  "While many races remain close, it's just getting harder and harder to envision a plausible path for the Democrats to retain control of the Senate."  They note a "decent chance" that a runoff election in Louisiana or Georgia may actually provide the magic 51st seat, not the election next Tuesday.

In Colorado, the Quinnipiac Poll has Bob Beauprez up by 5% over incumbent Gov. John Hickenlooper.  The 538 folks rate Quinnipiac fairly highly at a B+.  They also calculate a "house effect" of +1%R, so let's say Beauprez is really up 4%.  That is still a shade above the 3.4% confidence interval.  See this post for why I'm particularly interested in this one.

Update 2:  The Denver Post and Survey USA have the Colorado governor's race a dead heat, with the caveat that this is Colorado's first all-mail-in election, so pollsters really have no $%*&^* idea.  Okay, I paraphrased that last part a bit.


I just now had lunch with Michael Barone, probably the foremost expert on American politics. (We were sitting at the same table at a Federalist Society lunch). His view is that the Republicans will probably have a net gain of six, which will give them the majority. The six are Montana, W. Virginia, S. Dakota, Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana (after a runoff). He also thinks there's a good chance for a Republican pickup in North Carolina, where Hagan (the incumbent) is polling less than 45%, usually a fatal sign. He thinks Iowa and Colorado are also decent prospects at worst.

On defense, he does not view any of the Republicans as in danger, with the possible exception of Roberts in Kansas, who suffers from a long-simmering internal war within the state's Republican Party, plus having lost touch with the state after so many years in Washington, DC.

Mr. Barone also predicts that the Democrats will not do nearly as well as they're expecting with either the Hispanic or the Millenial vote.

The oddsmakers in Europe are offering bets on democratic control of the Senate at +750 which is the rough equivalent of 12 point underdog in a NFL game winning outright. Very long odds indeed.

However, this race is merely the undercard for the real matchup the entire world is waiting for and that is Bush v. Clinton II in 2016.

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