The NYT has this feature on the outcome of nominations to the Supreme Court during election years. It's actually an example of how easy it is to get the result you want by choices you make in the data.
When discussing American politics, what time-frame do we look at to see what is "usual"? In most matters, I and a lot of other people routinely look at the period beginning with the end of World War II. People regularly refer to that as "the postwar era," so regularly that we can generally assume the reader knows which war. That conflict changed the world so fundamentally that most of what went before has little relevance.
In the postwar era, a grand total of one Supreme Court justice has been confirmed in a presidential election year: Anthony Kennedy. Two nominees were not confirmed: Abe Fortas for elevation to Chief Justice and Homer Thornberry, nominated to succeed Fortas upon his confirmation. Applying the Meat Loaf Criterion, one of three ain't good.
So how does the NYT get the headline "Supreme Court Nominees Considered in Election Years Are Usually Confirmed"? "Since 1900, the Senate has voted on eight Supreme Court nominees during an election year. Six were confirmed." Why choose 1900? No reason is given.
When discussing American politics, what time-frame do we look at to see what is "usual"? In most matters, I and a lot of other people routinely look at the period beginning with the end of World War II. People regularly refer to that as "the postwar era," so regularly that we can generally assume the reader knows which war. That conflict changed the world so fundamentally that most of what went before has little relevance.
In the postwar era, a grand total of one Supreme Court justice has been confirmed in a presidential election year: Anthony Kennedy. Two nominees were not confirmed: Abe Fortas for elevation to Chief Justice and Homer Thornberry, nominated to succeed Fortas upon his confirmation. Applying the Meat Loaf Criterion, one of three ain't good.
So how does the NYT get the headline "Supreme Court Nominees Considered in Election Years Are Usually Confirmed"? "Since 1900, the Senate has voted on eight Supreme Court nominees during an election year. Six were confirmed." Why choose 1900? No reason is given.
And why is the category Supreme Court nominees considered in election years rather than person nominated during
an election year? If you phrase the question the second way (excluding
persons nominated the year before the election but considered after the
change in years), you have to go all the way back to President Hoover's
nomination of Benjamin Cardozo to find one confirmed.
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