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Bus. Roundtable/Pepperdine Poll: 43-48 on Prop 34

The biweekly Business Roundtable / Pepperdine poll is out.  It shows the No vote on Prop. 34 leading but by a smaller margin than the CBS 5 / Survey USA poll noted yesterday.  Totals are yes 42.9% to no 48.1%.  Report is here.  Trend line is here.

Why the difference in the polls?  Well, there are differences in methodology.  Pepperdine's innovative methodology is explained in their release announcing the series last July.  There are also differences in question wording.  Survey USA asked respondents if they were certain to vote yes, certain to vote no, or not certain, thus pushing the "leaners" into the uncertain category.  Pepperdine allows leaning as a response and includes the leaners in the yes/no total.

There is a substantial enthusiasm gap.  On the No side, 2/3 of those saying no in the Pepperdine survey say strongly no.  On the Yes side, a majority are "somewhat" or "leaning" to yes.  The enthusiasm gap combined with the question wording probably accounts for most of the difference in the two polls.

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