At our next meeting [of a group consisting mostly of academics], which will also be in Washington...we will focus on the 'lead hypothesis,' that the removal of lead from paint and gasoline resulted in crime declines some years later and may largely explain the crime drop.
In order to lay the groundwork for reducing imprisonment, it has to be "found" that imprisoning criminals has little or nothing to do with reducing crime. And that's the set-up here, in case anyone is wondering.
Since the dawn of civilization, mankind has known that there's a strong relationship between crime and punishment. This has been confirmed by studies that, unlike the coming scam, have had no axe to grind. See Kent's post here and mine here. We are about to find out, however, that we've been wrong all these centuries. The reduction in crime has almost nothing to do with taking more criminals off the street. Why would anyone think otherwise?
P.S. The Commission could announce its pre-determined findings even more quickly if it would add that preeminent scholar from Columbia, Prof. Kathy Boudin.