In the jumble of faux-refined "analysis" the Justice Department presented to the Sentencing Commission in speaking up for the interests of criminals broad retroactive application of more lenient drug guidelines, it buried the main question: What do drug traffickers do after their release?

An estimated two-thirds (68 percent) of 405,000 prisoners released in 30 states in 2005 were arrested for a new crime within three years of release from prison, and three-quarters (77 percent) were arrested within five years, the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) announced today.

More than a third (37 percent) of prisoners who were arrested within five years of release were arrested within the first six months after release, with more than half (57 percent) arrested by the end of the first year.

Recidivism rates varied with the attributes of the inmate. Prisoners released after serving time for a property offense were the most likely to recidivate. Within five years of release, 82 percent of property offenders were arrested for a new crime, compared to 77 percent of drug offenders, 74 percent of public order offenders and 71 percent of violent offenders.

Let's be clear then, about what moving up the release dates of drug traffickers by retroactive application of more lenient guidelines is going to do.  It's going to produce more drug trafficking, earlier.  It's as simple as that.