Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper was considered "safe" for reelection not so long ago. Real Clear Politics changed its rating to "toss-up" last week.
On July 15, I noted that the NBC/Marist Poll had Hickenlooper ahead 49-43. Conventional political wisdom is that an incumbent is in trouble if early polls show less than a majority, even if leading the opponent.
Two polls since then have come out 43-44 and 44-43, Quinnipiac and PPP respectively. I generally dislike the term "statistical dead heat" in political poll reporting, but it fits here. That's a dead heat.
Dan Frosch has this story in the WSJ:
On July 15, I noted that the NBC/Marist Poll had Hickenlooper ahead 49-43. Conventional political wisdom is that an incumbent is in trouble if early polls show less than a majority, even if leading the opponent.
Two polls since then have come out 43-44 and 44-43, Quinnipiac and PPP respectively. I generally dislike the term "statistical dead heat" in political poll reporting, but it fits here. That's a dead heat.
Dan Frosch has this story in the WSJ:
Republicans have tried to cast Mr. Hickenlooper as indecisive, noting his move last year to delay the execution of a convicted murderer, Nathan Dunlap, over concerns about the death penalty's morality. Mr. Hickenlooper didn't grant Mr. Dunlap clemency either, instead issuing a "temporary reprieve."
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