Bret Stephens has this column in the WSJ with the above headline, a variation on the old joke that there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. The subhead is, "Here's a story for the media: a community in which honest people are afraid to tell the truth."
There are two parts to the column, as there are two reports out of Ferguson. The first part is the exoneration of Officer Wilson and the discrediting of the reports that were so widely reported and believed. He notes that some witnesses were afraid the tell the truth and contradict "the narrative reported by the media" for fear of reprisal in the neighborhood.
There are two parts to the column, as there are two reports out of Ferguson. The first part is the exoneration of Officer Wilson and the discrediting of the reports that were so widely reported and believed. He notes that some witnesses were afraid the tell the truth and contradict "the narrative reported by the media" for fear of reprisal in the neighborhood.
Now there's a story for the media: A community in which honest people can't tell the truth for fear of running afoul local thugs enforcing "the narrative reported by the media." Or is that more of a story about the media?The second part has to do with the second report about the larger picture in Ferguson, and particularly that report's use of statistics. Here we run into our old adversary, the fallacy that I call The Fallacy of the Irrelevant Denominator.
Then there's the report's abuse of statistics, notably of the fact that African-Americans are 67% of Ferguson's population but are disproportionately arrested for crime.I wouldn't go that far. There is truth in statistics. That is, properly used, statistics are valuable tools for finding the truth. Yet any tool can be misused. One can use a screwdriver as a dagger, but we don't condemn screwdrivers. We condemn people who misuse them as daggers, or at least those of us with sense do.
Is this racism? The Missouri Statistical Analysis Center notes that in 2012 African-Americans, about 12% of the state's population, constituted 65% of murder arrests and 62% of murder victims. To suggest that the glaring statistical disproportion between relative population size and murder rate is somehow a function of race would be erroneous and offensive. Yet tarring a police force as racist for far smaller statistical discrepancies is now one of the privileged "truths" of 21st century America.
The lesson of Darren Wilson is that there is no truth in narrative. And the lesson of Ferguson is that there is no truth in statistics. There is truth in fact. There is truth in reason. There is truth in truthfulness. Nothing less.
Comparing criminal justice statistics for one demographic category of people in proportion to the general population without considering variations in the rate of committing crimes across categories is just plain wrong. The sole purpose of such comparisons is to fan the flames of racial resentment by implying racial discrimination with a number that actually proves absolutely nothing.
This is so simple and so obvious that one can only wonder why the press continues to report these statements as if they mean something.
The problems in the Black community are real, but when you use the reaction to law enforcement to the crime to sell newspapers or to boost your own notoriety is committing another crime, a crime against every one in the entire country. We need to address the CAUSE of the crime; attitude, sub standard education, the ravages of the welfare system that keeps fathers out of the home, lack of spirituality reflecting the dignity of all humans, an entitlement mentality, feelings of being not included in mainstream culture and more. Where are the heroes? Where are the schools that teach entrepreneurs how to proceed? This wonderful aspect of the American family needs to be accepted fully and they need to accept the white population fully. Mutual acceptance is a start!