Would you buy a house without knowing the price?
That's what sentencing reduction advocates want us to do: They want us to buy their legislation without ever giving us specifics about what the costs are going to be in additional crime.
The idea that we won't have more crime when we put more criminals back on the street is preposterous on its face, not to mention contrary to academics' much-ballyhooed "data." The nation's incarceration rate has been shrinking for six straight years after an explosive rise over the 25 before then, and the chickens are starting to come home to roost. As fewer criminals find themselves in prison, the prior strong pace of crime reduction has slackened, and last year, the most serious crime -- murder -- increased by a shocking 17%. Although sentencing reform advocates think this is no great cause for concern -- "chill" is literally what they told us at the Huffington Post -- normal people are concerned.
With crime already showing signs of being on a comeback, and with recidivism rates sky-high (whether you look at BJS or Sentencing Commission studies), how much more crime are we going to get if we accelerate the trend toward releasing criminals earlier?
That is the key question -- what's the price? -- and the one reform advocates refuse to answer.
P.S. Here's the other key question: When the powerful -- members of Congress, judges and lawyers -- make their inevitable mistakes and release dangerous criminals early, who will pay the price? Those who erred, or the marginalized future victims who had no say and no chance?
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