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Electability

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Philip Bump at the WaPo's Fix political blog has this look at general election match-up polls. Not only has Donald Trump come off the worst in heads-ups matches with Hillary Clinton throughout the election season, but he is trending downward.  Ted Cruz does better, and just as importantly he is trending up.

John Kasich does the best of the three, but frankly I don't see any substantial chance of him being the nominee.

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John Kasich's record on the death penalty leaves much to be desired. He had a lame explanation for one commutation, and didn't bother to tell the victim's family about another one. He didn't fight hard against Judge Frost's obstructionism. That tells me he is weak and cannot be counted on to stand up to the Dems.

The Kasich death penalty record is nuanced, and he did preside over 12 executions during his first term. Moreover, if you believe (as I do) that Gov Christie was right to stress that Govs have to make real decisions while others can just give speeches, Kasich merits some extra credit on this front given the many challenges in Ohio moving forward.

More to the point, it has been obvious to me since late last summer --- and it became especially obvious after New Hampshire --- that Gov Kasich was the most electable non-Trump. Among other important realities, his consistent talk and impressive record of balanced budgets and job creation shows he is just the right kind of fiscal conservative to draw independents and younger voters away from the Clinton machine (especially because he could assert that his work once the GOP took back Congress was what made the Clinton years a fiscal boon).

If Govs Christie and Bush and Romney really believed a lot of what they have said in their various campaigns, it should have been a no-brainier that they would throw their support behind someone light Kasich instead of an obvious lightweight like Rubio or a barn-burner like Cruz. But, for reasons I still do not entirely understand, a conservative realist like Kasich just could not convince party leader to give up darkness for light. And as a result, it looks more and more like Prez Clinton will be getting to fill at least 3 SCOTUS seat before the end of this decade.

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