As Bill noted earlier today, the theme of the opening day of the Republican National Convention is Make America Safe Again. Is America unsafe? Is a change of direction needed? Consider two graphs (click on them for larger views):
Biased fact-checkers have assailed Donald Trump's emphasis on law and order, quoting experts citing the data in the first graph, as noted in this post. Yes, crime has fallen since 1993. It is half what it was at the peak, although still far above the golden years of the Ozzie and Harriet era. You don't see an uptick at the end of the graph, do you?
But look at the scale. The official numbers are notoriously slow in coming out. The scale ends at 2014. What about the last year and a half?
The graph on the right represents crime in the first quarters of 2015 and 2016. It shows violent crime up in every category and a nearly seven percent jump in a single year. These numbers are from the Major Cities Chiefs Association, a recent entrant in the crime statistics business. Their only prior numbers are for 2014 v. 2015, which also showed an increase in all categories except robbery. The major cities included cannot be assumed to be representative of the country, but they include the places where a large portion of our people live and work.
Seven percent in one year is a dramatic jump, and combined with a broad increase, although smaller, in 2015, it is likely not a fluke. The major increase in California, noted here, a state that gone full bore in softening its approach to crime, further supports the idea that a general softening is a significant contributing cause.
While I might quibble with the wording of the theme, the renewed attention to law and order is appropriate and welcome. We must not forget and repeat the errors of the past.
Biased fact-checkers have assailed Donald Trump's emphasis on law and order, quoting experts citing the data in the first graph, as noted in this post. Yes, crime has fallen since 1993. It is half what it was at the peak, although still far above the golden years of the Ozzie and Harriet era. You don't see an uptick at the end of the graph, do you?
But look at the scale. The official numbers are notoriously slow in coming out. The scale ends at 2014. What about the last year and a half?
The graph on the right represents crime in the first quarters of 2015 and 2016. It shows violent crime up in every category and a nearly seven percent jump in a single year. These numbers are from the Major Cities Chiefs Association, a recent entrant in the crime statistics business. Their only prior numbers are for 2014 v. 2015, which also showed an increase in all categories except robbery. The major cities included cannot be assumed to be representative of the country, but they include the places where a large portion of our people live and work.
Seven percent in one year is a dramatic jump, and combined with a broad increase, although smaller, in 2015, it is likely not a fluke. The major increase in California, noted here, a state that gone full bore in softening its approach to crime, further supports the idea that a general softening is a significant contributing cause.
While I might quibble with the wording of the theme, the renewed attention to law and order is appropriate and welcome. We must not forget and repeat the errors of the past.
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