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Q: Is America Overincarcerated?

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A:  Absolutely not.  The people who get sent to prison earn their way there, and keeping them segregated from civil society for longer terms has contributed significantly to the enormous (but now jeopardized) drop in crime over the last generation.

The Manhattan Institute spells it out with data as effectively as I have ever seen.  Its  tract begins:

It is not easy to land in an American prison. Most convicted felons never reach prison, and those who do are typically repeat offenders guilty of the most serious violent and property crimes. The system sends very few people to prison for simple drug possession. Drug-related convictions do not disproportionately harm the black community. To the contrary, if all drug offenders were released tomorrow, there would be no change in the black share of prisoners.

We do know, however, that putting the most dangerous criminals behind bars reduces victimization for crime-plagued communities. As the incarceration rate for violent felons has increased, crime rates have plunged, saving countless lives and improving public safety--especially in minority neighborhoods. California, which is experimenting with "deincarceration," is already seeing years of progress on public safety reversed in a matter of months.
Key Findings: 


◆ 47 percent of incarcerated Americans are in prison for violent crimes, compared with only 20 percent for drug-related crimes. 

◆ Less than 4 percent of prisoners were convicted merely of drug possession, and many of those cases represent plea bargains from more serious offenses; out of 70,000 federal convictions in 2015, there were a total of 198 convictions for simple drug possession--of which just six were for simple possession of crack cocaine. 

◆ Drug convictions do not drive high rates of black incarceration: 37 percent of all prisoners are black, compared with 39 percent of drug convicts. Put another way: if all drug convicts were released tomorrow, the black share of the prison population would fall from 37.4 percent to 37.2 percent. • Only 3 percent of violent victimizations and property crimes lead to imprisonment; even among convicted felons, less than half receive a prison term, and most of those are out in less than three years. 

◆ The average number of prior convictions for inmates released from state prison is five; the average number of prior arrests is more than ten. 

◆ Among convicted felons sent to prison, the median sentence is 30 months; for violent felons, it is 48 months. • California's experiment with deincarceration has reversed years of declining crime rates in a matter of months. 

◆ Enjoying a 14 percent decline in violent crime and a 6 percent decline in property crime over four years, California implemented Proposition 47 in November 2014 to eliminate prison sentences for various property and drug crimes. The state's jail and prison populations began declining immediately thereafter. 

◆ But within six months, violent crime rose by 13 percent and property crime by 9 percent, entirely erasing the gains of the previous years. California's prison population has stopped falling, and its jail population is rising again.

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