Bill noted earlier today the poll by the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California, Berkeley. Let's look a little more at these data.
Four years ago, we defeated a death penalty repeal initiative, but the opponents got closer than they should have. I believed at the time that the reason was not opposition to the death penalty as such but rather the success of the opponents in blocking enforcement of the death penalty and the absence of a reform alternative on the same ballot.
The topline results of the new poll tend to confirm this hypothesis. For the repeal initiative, the poll found 45.1% in favor and 54.9% opposed. For the reform initiative, the poll found 75.7% in favor and 24.3% opposed. At a minimum, then, one fifth of the people of California intend to vote for both initiatives. That is, if all of the 24.3% who intend to vote no on reform vote in favor of repeal, then 20.8% who intend to vote for reform also intend to vote for repeal. If anyone intends to vote no on both, though I'm not sure why anyone would, then the "yes on both" vote is that much larger. A large segment of the population of California is so fed up with the status quo that, although they would like to see the system fixed, they would rather scrap it than go on as we are.
The "crosstabs" are also interesting. What would happen if California Democrats decided this issue by themselves?
Four years ago, we defeated a death penalty repeal initiative, but the opponents got closer than they should have. I believed at the time that the reason was not opposition to the death penalty as such but rather the success of the opponents in blocking enforcement of the death penalty and the absence of a reform alternative on the same ballot.
The topline results of the new poll tend to confirm this hypothesis. For the repeal initiative, the poll found 45.1% in favor and 54.9% opposed. For the reform initiative, the poll found 75.7% in favor and 24.3% opposed. At a minimum, then, one fifth of the people of California intend to vote for both initiatives. That is, if all of the 24.3% who intend to vote no on reform vote in favor of repeal, then 20.8% who intend to vote for reform also intend to vote for repeal. If anyone intends to vote no on both, though I'm not sure why anyone would, then the "yes on both" vote is that much larger. A large segment of the population of California is so fed up with the status quo that, although they would like to see the system fixed, they would rather scrap it than go on as we are.
The "crosstabs" are also interesting. What would happen if California Democrats decided this issue by themselves?
Among California Democrats, the repeal initiative would win by a vote of 55% to 45%. However, the reform initiative would win among Democrats by a much larger 70% to 30%. Independents and Republicans favor reform and oppose repeal by wide margins.
In ethnic crosstabs, repeal wins only with Black voters, by 60% to 40%. There is essentially no difference between White and Latino voters: 46.5%-53.5% and 44.4%-55.6%, respectively. The 2% difference is less than the margin of error of the poll (95% confidence interval of 4% overall, greater on crosstabs). Asian voters are solidly opposed to repeal, 36.5%-63.5%.
Surprisingly, these ethnic differences vanish when voters are asked about the reform initiative. The results are the same within the margin of error for all four groups: Asian 76.6%-23.4%; Black 74.1%-25.9%; Latino 72.5%-27.5%; White 76.9%-23.1%.
This poll, obviously, looks very good for the forces of justice in California. Even if Proposition 62 does pass, it will be nullified if Proposition 66 passes with more votes.
How could we lose with a 75-25 advantage going in? The opponents will have far more money, and they will be able to launch a massive and almost certainly misleading media campaign. This may be a test of whether money can buy an election in California. Let's hope not.
In ethnic crosstabs, repeal wins only with Black voters, by 60% to 40%. There is essentially no difference between White and Latino voters: 46.5%-53.5% and 44.4%-55.6%, respectively. The 2% difference is less than the margin of error of the poll (95% confidence interval of 4% overall, greater on crosstabs). Asian voters are solidly opposed to repeal, 36.5%-63.5%.
Surprisingly, these ethnic differences vanish when voters are asked about the reform initiative. The results are the same within the margin of error for all four groups: Asian 76.6%-23.4%; Black 74.1%-25.9%; Latino 72.5%-27.5%; White 76.9%-23.1%.
This poll, obviously, looks very good for the forces of justice in California. Even if Proposition 62 does pass, it will be nullified if Proposition 66 passes with more votes.
How could we lose with a 75-25 advantage going in? The opponents will have far more money, and they will be able to launch a massive and almost certainly misleading media campaign. This may be a test of whether money can buy an election in California. Let's hope not.
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