Jazmine Ulloa has this post on the LA Times political blog noting a "a new USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll conducted by SurveyMonkey." This one shows Prop. 62 losing by 11%, 40-51.
I have my doubts about SurveyMonkey's method, and I wouldn't put too much weight on it. Self-selected samples are dicey, even when "corrected" for demographic factors. Nate Silver and crew at 538 rate SurveyUSA an "A" and SurveyMonkey a "C-." Even so, when multiple sources give you more-or-less consistent results, it does boost confidence in those results.
There is an interesting contrast in the two polls on the age crosstab.
I have my doubts about SurveyMonkey's method, and I wouldn't put too much weight on it. Self-selected samples are dicey, even when "corrected" for demographic factors. Nate Silver and crew at 538 rate SurveyUSA an "A" and SurveyMonkey a "C-." Even so, when multiple sources give you more-or-less consistent results, it does boost confidence in those results.
There is an interesting contrast in the two polls on the age crosstab.
The SurveyUSA poll combines all 18-34 voters together and shows them 40-45 against Prop. 62, considerably smaller than the overall margin. The SurveyMonkey poll breaks this cohort into two, 18-24 and 25-34. Prop. 62 breaks even in the older group but gets walloped 32-59 in the younger. That's a spread of 27% in this group in contrast to the overall 11%.
I wouldn't jump to any conclusions about the youngest voters based on one poll in one state on one issue, but it is an interesting and encouraging factoid.
I wouldn't jump to any conclusions about the youngest voters based on one poll in one state on one issue, but it is an interesting and encouraging factoid.
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