SurveyUSA has released another California poll. As with the two previous polls (noted here and here), they surveyed on Prop. 62, the death penalty repeal initiative, but not on Prop. 66, the "fix it" initiative.
Prop. 62 has slipped three points since the previous poll and now trails by 18%. The pollsters still characterize it as "headed for defeat."
Crosstabs (the breakdown by various groups within the total) haven't changed too much, although there is an interesting indication that repeal has lost considerable support with black voters. For the survey collected Sept. 8 - Sept. 11, black voters favored 62 by a slim majority, 51-36. However, for the most recent survey, conducted Oct. 13 - Oct. 15, the slim majority goes the other way, 41-52. That is a change from +15% to -11%, or a 26% swing. Crosstabs have higher margins of error than the overall poll due to the smaller sample size of the subgroups, so this result should be treated with caution, but even so that is quite a shift.
Prop. 62 has slipped three points since the previous poll and now trails by 18%. The pollsters still characterize it as "headed for defeat."
Crosstabs (the breakdown by various groups within the total) haven't changed too much, although there is an interesting indication that repeal has lost considerable support with black voters. For the survey collected Sept. 8 - Sept. 11, black voters favored 62 by a slim majority, 51-36. However, for the most recent survey, conducted Oct. 13 - Oct. 15, the slim majority goes the other way, 41-52. That is a change from +15% to -11%, or a 26% swing. Crosstabs have higher margins of error than the overall poll due to the smaller sample size of the subgroups, so this result should be treated with caution, but even so that is quite a shift.
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