The Hoover Institution at Stanford University has another poll from California, done by YouGov.
Like the Field Poll noted last month, this poll described Proposition 66 only in the dry, neutral terms of the ballot label, making no mention that it will make enforcement of the death penalty more effective and more timely. With this similarly uninformative wording, they get a similar result: 38% yes, 24% no, and 38% undecided. That is a few percent more for yes and less for undecided than a month ago, but it still indicates that lack of information is the greatest threat to Proposition 66.
In contrast, the poll by the Institute for Social Research at Sacramento State noted less than two weeks ago, which used the words "speed up," came in at 51-20-29 on Prop. 66.
A few notes on the crosstabs ...
Conducted between Oct. 4 and 14, the survey's sample is 1,250 likely voters in the upcoming general election in California. The full results of the survey, which has a margin of error of +/-3.28 percent for the full weighted sample, can be found here.This poll finds the repeal initiative only slightly behind and within the margin of error, 42-43.
Like the Field Poll noted last month, this poll described Proposition 66 only in the dry, neutral terms of the ballot label, making no mention that it will make enforcement of the death penalty more effective and more timely. With this similarly uninformative wording, they get a similar result: 38% yes, 24% no, and 38% undecided. That is a few percent more for yes and less for undecided than a month ago, but it still indicates that lack of information is the greatest threat to Proposition 66.
In contrast, the poll by the Institute for Social Research at Sacramento State noted less than two weeks ago, which used the words "speed up," came in at 51-20-29 on Prop. 66.
A few notes on the crosstabs ...
I noted last week how annoyed I was that Gallup classified voters as "white" or "nonwhite" in its poll on respect for police. The Hoover Inst. poll indicates how meaningless that can be.
In this poll, white voters and Hispanic voters were both evenly divided on repeal within the margin of error. Black voters were 46-25 in favor while Asian voters were 34-47 against. If Prop. 62 is narrowly defeated, it may be the Asian voters who sink it, and their increased size of the California electorate in recent times may be the reason they can.
On Proposition 66, pluralities are in favor in every column -- young, old, white, black, rich, poor, Democrats, Republicans, you name it. Even the half of Bernie's fans who state a preference are 30-21 in favor.
But it is not enough that more people vote "yes" than "no" on 66. If both pass, we need more people to vote for 66 than 62, and the large undecided is a huge worry. So if anyone is wondering why we talk so much about this election on this blog, this is why. If you are in a position to help get the word out, please do so.
In this poll, white voters and Hispanic voters were both evenly divided on repeal within the margin of error. Black voters were 46-25 in favor while Asian voters were 34-47 against. If Prop. 62 is narrowly defeated, it may be the Asian voters who sink it, and their increased size of the California electorate in recent times may be the reason they can.
On Proposition 66, pluralities are in favor in every column -- young, old, white, black, rich, poor, Democrats, Republicans, you name it. Even the half of Bernie's fans who state a preference are 30-21 in favor.
But it is not enough that more people vote "yes" than "no" on 66. If both pass, we need more people to vote for 66 than 62, and the large undecided is a huge worry. So if anyone is wondering why we talk so much about this election on this blog, this is why. If you are in a position to help get the word out, please do so.
Leave a comment