Seven Murders in Chicago on Wednesday: Chicago set a one day murder record for the year Wednesday with seven shooting deaths. The Sun Times reports that this makes 92 murders so far in 2017, with 400 people injured since since January 1. Among the victims was a yet-unidentified pregnant woman who was shot in the abdomen and side. So far this year there have been 3 days where five people have been murdered. The city's strict gun control law and restraints on proactive policing don't appear to be working very well.
Did Cop Die Due to CA Sentencing Laws? The murder of a Los Angeles area police officer by a habitual felon last Monday has sparked a statewide discussion about California's alternative sentencing scheme. Currently California law considers property and drug criminals as being "low risk" for violence, even if they have violent priors, and substitutes prison time for most new felony convictions for short stays in a country jail and local rehabilitation programs. CJLF participated in a discussion of these policies on Wednesday's John & Ken show on KFI in Los Angeles.
Expert: Sex Offenders Are Low Risk: In the aftermath of the arrest of repeat sex offender Brian Golsby for the rape and murder of a 21-year-old Ohio State co-ed earlier this month, an expert on sex offenders maintains that they present a very low risk of re-offending. John Futty of the Columbus dispatch reports that Professor Melissa Hamilton of the University of Houston Law Center cites Justice Department data showing that only 5.3% of sex offenders were arrested for re-offending within three years of their release. She blames media reports of horrible sex crimes by repeat offenders for stoking public fear of sex offenders. But an official from the DOJ agency that monitors sex offenders said that "we don't know the true recidivism rate" because many sex crimes go unreported. A 2015 study on sexual assault in Texas found that more than 90% of assaults are not reported to police.
Did Cop Die Due to CA Sentencing Laws? The murder of a Los Angeles area police officer by a habitual felon last Monday has sparked a statewide discussion about California's alternative sentencing scheme. Currently California law considers property and drug criminals as being "low risk" for violence, even if they have violent priors, and substitutes prison time for most new felony convictions for short stays in a country jail and local rehabilitation programs. CJLF participated in a discussion of these policies on Wednesday's John & Ken show on KFI in Los Angeles.
Expert: Sex Offenders Are Low Risk: In the aftermath of the arrest of repeat sex offender Brian Golsby for the rape and murder of a 21-year-old Ohio State co-ed earlier this month, an expert on sex offenders maintains that they present a very low risk of re-offending. John Futty of the Columbus dispatch reports that Professor Melissa Hamilton of the University of Houston Law Center cites Justice Department data showing that only 5.3% of sex offenders were arrested for re-offending within three years of their release. She blames media reports of horrible sex crimes by repeat offenders for stoking public fear of sex offenders. But an official from the DOJ agency that monitors sex offenders said that "we don't know the true recidivism rate" because many sex crimes go unreported. A 2015 study on sexual assault in Texas found that more than 90% of assaults are not reported to police.
Sex offenders as a whole may be low-risk. But Golsby's prior crime, to any sentient individual, showed a serious propensity for law-breaking and violence.
More propaganda from the be nice to criminals lobby.
Great analysis by Professor Melissa Hamilton, a truth-seeking scholar striving to overcome Americans' ignorant prejudice against rapists. Legal academia is truly the only thing saving this country from pure barbarism.
To really appreciate her brilliance, let's take a look at the study she cites: https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/rsorp94.pdf
She's right that this study shows only about 5% of sex offenders are re-arrested for a sex crime within 3 years of release. That, she says, means we shouldn't characterize sex offenders as "high-risk." Interesting that she would cite that 5% figure, when just a few pages before, the study lists the general recidivism rate of sex offenders: 26% are rearrested within 1 year and 46% are rearrested within 3 years. (pg. 22).
Moreover, a 2014 study of 30 states found that the overall re-arrest rate of sex offenders was 31% within 1 year and 50% within 3 years. https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/rprts05p0510.pdf at page 8.
I'm not a legal academic, so I won't pretend to know whether this makes sex offenders "high-risk." However, I would love to hear Professor Hamilton's enlightened opinion on the subject! I have so much to learn.
Maybe Professor Hamilton would say that sex offenders tend to have lower recidivism rates than other criminals. She would be right! In fact, the 2014 study shows that the criminals with the highest recidivism rate are those whose most serious offense is property crime -- about 75% are re-arrested within 3 years. (pg. 8). And which criminals have the lowest re-arrest rate? Just who you would have guessed -- murderers! In fact, the 3-year re-arrest rate of murders (37.8%), is about half of the 3-year re-arrest rate of property criminals. (pg. 8).
If we approach this subject with Professor Hamilton's enlightened objectivity, it's clear that murders and sex offenders are "low risk" and property criminals are "high risk." And because Professor Hamilton is such a principled academic, I'm sure she would agree that, at least when giving effect to the incapacitative purpose of sentencing, we should incapacitate burglars for much longer than murders or rapists. That's good news for law-abiding families in low income neighborhoods where some young men are forced by societal oppression to turn to burglary and auto theft just to get high in this rich man's world.
One thing that I'm sure does not explain differential recidivism rates is age of offender release. To be sure, statistics might provide just a bit of support for that theory (* see below). And to be sure, lower recidivism rates for murders and rapists might be explained by the fact that longer sentences lead to an older age of release. But scholars like Professor Hamilton have already shown that this country suffers from an epidemic of over-incarceration.
All this leads to an obvious question: have you contributed to the alumni fund at your law school today? If not, do it now!
http://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/research-publications/2016/recidivism_overview.pdf -- Page 23 for recidivism rate across age of release.
I agree with Levin.
The most comprehensive study of sex-offender recidivism is probably from Hanson, R. K. & Morton-Bourgon, K. E. (2005). (The characteristics of persistent sexual offenders: A meta-analysis of recidivism studies)
Conclusions?
"On average, the observed sexual recidivism rate was 13.7% (n 19,267; 73 studies), the violent nonsexual recidivism rate was 14.3% (n 6,928; 24 studies), the violent recidivism rate (includ- ing sexual and nonsexual violence) was 14.3% (n 11,361; 29 studies) and the general (any) recidivism rate was 36.2% (n 12,708; 56 studies)."
Link here: http://www.icmec.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Characteristics-of-Persistent-Sex-Offenders-Meta-Analysis-of-Recidivism-2005.pdf
So, 36% of sexual offenders reoffend in some fashion? Low risk?
JCC