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UCR Data Raises Concerns

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While the overview for the FBI Uniform Crime Report for 2017 notes that there was a small decrease in violent crime nationally compared to 2016, a harder look at the data raises some concerns.  The report shows that for the nation as a whole, violent crime was down slightly, with the exception of rape and aggravated assault, which were up slightly.  The report breaks up the nation into four regions: the Northeast, the Midwest, the South and the West. 

Of those regions, referring to the offense rate per 100,000, three had decreases in violent crime and property crime.  The West had an increase in violent crime and a decrease in property crime.   Looking at significant recent changes in state criminal justice policy, states which have legalized recreational marijuana and states which have engaged in major sentencing reform to reduce sentences were more likely to have suffered increases in violent crime that those who have not.  

Of the nine states and the District of Columbia which have legalized recreational marijuana six had increases in violent crime.  The increase in Vermont, which legalized recreational marijuana in July, was the highest at 21.4%, with Colorado coming in second at 7%.  Of the legalized marijuana states and DC, six had significant increases in homicide, with Vermont not reporting.  Massachusetts' increase was 27.5%, with Alaska's was 19.5%, followed by Nevada (17.8%), Washington (16%), Colorado (15.3%), and Maine ((14.5%).  All nine legalized marijuana states had increases in rape, with Vermont (28.2%), Maine, (14%), and Nevada (10.5%) in double digits.

Of the eight states which have enacted the most significant reforms to reduce sentences, seven had increased violent crime, and five had increases in homicide.  Three of these states had double digit increases in homicide lead by Arkansas (18.3%), and followed by Washington (16%) and Hawaii (11.5%). 

Focusing just on California...the national leader in sentencing reform, which legalized recreational marijuana in 2017; violent crime has increased in each of the last three years.  Forcible rape and robbery have increased in each of the last four years.  While correlation is not causation, it might be worthwhile to track this phenomenon over the years ahead. 

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[If we were to secure the southern border, would we not eliminate something
to the tune of 22% of crimes necessitating federal incarceration?]
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/aug/1/
immigrants-22-percent-federal-prison-population/
.......///////.......

Illegal alien who killed English youth coach in NYC in 2012
captured in Mexico after killing 2 more Interpol Agents

dailymail.com 28 SEP 2018

The FBI has captured a Mexican man wanted for murdering a soccer coach
in New York after a 6-year international manhunt.
Orlando Orea was arrested in Puebla City on Thursday, a day after the fugitive
killed two Interpol agents in the Mexican state of Puebla.

He has been wanted by the FBI since he was caught on surveillance camera stabbing and killing New York Red Bulls coach Michael Jones on a NYC
street on October 7, 2012.
Two days later, Orea eluded capture by boarding an Aeromexico flight …

When [authorities] arrived at his hiding place, Orea fought back and executed
Victor Suarez Diaz and Luis Alberto Luna, who were part of the manhunt for
the wanted man.
The wanted suspect had been renting out a room at a building in the sector
of San Miguel for the past five months and drank beers inside his living
quarter with friends, according to Diario Cambio.

Michael Jones was part of the New York Red Bulls Youth Training Program.
He was killed October, 7, 2012 by Mexican national Orlando Orea … https://www.brooklyndaily.com/stories/2012/42/all_nfn_jones_
2012_10_19_bd.html

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