Those of us who believe that people who commit serious crimes against others should be fully punished for what they have done have had a more difficult time in the legislative arena than at any time since the 1960s.
Although it would be simplistic to attribute the change to any one cause, surely a major cause, probably the primary cause, is the drop in crime rates.
We set out in the 1980s to bring crime rates down. Crime rates are down dramatically. Fighting crime now seems less urgent. The issue is not high on the list of debated topics in political campaigns. The friends of criminals make more legislative headway than they have in a long time, and we are more often on defense.
None of this is coincidental. Getting tough on crime was not the only change that brought rates down, but it was an important one. The same is true for crime rates and attitudes on punishment.
We do not have polling data specifically on the question of getting tough on crime. That would be too vague a concept for a good poll question in any event. For measuring relative trends across time, Gallup's standard question on the death penalty is the best proxy we have, to my knowledge. As I have noted before, the question is poorly worded and underestimates actual support for capital punishment, but the length of time that Gallup has been asking the same question gives it value for long-term trends. The question is, "Do you support or oppose the death penalty for persons convicted of murder?"
The graph plots violent crime rates and the support-oppose spread on Gallup's standard question. Click on the graph for a larger version. The two variables rise and fall in sync to a remarkable degree. Statistically, r = 0.9, which is very high as these things go.
As misguided policies have their consequences, will some substantial share of the people who supported them turn around? Will a good slice of the "woke" actually wake up? I hope, for all our sakes, that crime rates do not have to return to 1980s levels before we see that turnaround.
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