But I know the neighborhood,
and talk is cheap when the story is good,
and the tales grow taller on down the line.
With that musical reminder from REO Speedwagon,* we have yet another criminal justice statistic reported the press that is far less significant than one would think from scanning the headlines.
The headline in USA Today last Friday read, "FBI: Burgeoning gangs behind up to 80% of U.S. crime." Oh, my God! Four out of five total crimes in America! We knew gangs were bad, but nowhere near that bad! Or are they?
The story by Kevin Johnson (who probably did not write the headline) actually says, "Criminal gangs in the USA have swelled to an estimated 1 million
members responsible for up to 80% of crimes in communities across the
nation, according to a gang threat assessment compiled by federal
officials." That could be read the way the headline-writer read it, but maybe not.
The FBI's press release for its 2009 National Gang Threat Assessment says, "Criminal gangs commit as much as 80 percent of the crime in many communities, according to law enforcement officials throughout the nation." Ah, "as much as" and "many communities," meaning this is the peak estimate for the most gang-infested communities, a far cry from the national total implied by the USA Today headline. But wait, there's more.
Turning to the full document, and skipping past the dumbed-down summary and key findings (which are the same as the press release), what to our wondering eyes should appear but this:
So, not only is the estimate for "some locations" and not nationwide, as the USA Today's headline indicates, it is expressly disclaimed as a federal government estimate in the very source the paper cites as a federal government estimate.
The moral of the story is, don't believe anything you read about the results of a study until you have gone into the text and checked it out. Even the source's own press office can't be counted on to note the hedges and limitations that may make the result less stark than it appears on the surface. With each step removed from the original, the results grow simpler, more clear-cut, less nuanced, and more ominous. The tales grow taller on down the line.
Gangs are certainly a grave problem and dealing with them is one of the greatest challenges, not only for law enforcement but for society as a whole. But they are not responsible for the amount of crime implied by USA Today's reckless headline.
*REO Speedwagon is an old rock band, not to be confused with the real estate agent's bus that takes people on tours of foreclosed properties -- "Real Estate Owned" by banks.
The FBI's press release for its 2009 National Gang Threat Assessment says, "Criminal gangs commit as much as 80 percent of the crime in many communities, according to law enforcement officials throughout the nation." Ah, "as much as" and "many communities," meaning this is the peak estimate for the most gang-infested communities, a far cry from the national total implied by the USA Today headline. But wait, there's more.
Turning to the full document, and skipping past the dumbed-down summary and key findings (which are the same as the press release), what to our wondering eyes should appear but this:
According to local law enforcement information, gang members are responsible for as much as 80 percent of the crime in some locations.5
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5. Stated percentage is based solely on self-reporting by local law enforcement. The figures given are not meant to represent an National Drug Intelligence Center (NDIC) analysis.
So, not only is the estimate for "some locations" and not nationwide, as the USA Today's headline indicates, it is expressly disclaimed as a federal government estimate in the very source the paper cites as a federal government estimate.
The moral of the story is, don't believe anything you read about the results of a study until you have gone into the text and checked it out. Even the source's own press office can't be counted on to note the hedges and limitations that may make the result less stark than it appears on the surface. With each step removed from the original, the results grow simpler, more clear-cut, less nuanced, and more ominous. The tales grow taller on down the line.
Gangs are certainly a grave problem and dealing with them is one of the greatest challenges, not only for law enforcement but for society as a whole. But they are not responsible for the amount of crime implied by USA Today's reckless headline.
*REO Speedwagon is an old rock band, not to be confused with the real estate agent's bus that takes people on tours of foreclosed properties -- "Real Estate Owned" by banks.
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