A recent study by the RAND Drug Policy Research Center finds that legalizing marijuana in California will likely not significantly reduce drug cartel revenues and its accompanying violence. Specifically:
"California already accounts for about one-seventh of U.S. marijuana consumption, and domestic production is already stronger in California than elsewhere in the United States. Hence, if Prop 19 only affects revenues from supplying marijuana to California, DTO [drug trade organization] drug export revenue losses would be very small, on the order of 2-4 percent."The study finds that drug cartel revenues could be significantly reduced if legally-grown marijuana from California beats out the prices of the Mexican variety. But the study notes that "there is significant uncertainty regarding the assumptions underlying this estimate," such as whether California will tax marijuana exported to other states, and how vehemently federal and local law enforcement agencies will work to combat interstate distribution. The AP has this story.