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Coin-Flip, Anyone?

Some mostly off-topic political notes.
As of 11 am PDT, Nate Silver et al. at 538 rated the chances of winning the presidency at 53% for Mrs. Clinton and 47% for Mr. Trump, which is pretty close to a coin flip.  It was even a tad tighter earlier this morning, but the busy beavers there are constantly tweaking it.

Will the debate tonight make a big difference?  It could.  Donald Trump got a big bounce out of the scripted, on-message Republican convention and then promptly threw it away with multiple profoundly stupid and offensive remarks.  He has been better lately, and not coincidentally he has steadily tightened the race since he has been better.  But can he stay that way in a sustained, unscripted personal appearance?

If he can, he might convince some people on the fence that he is not the monster they thought he was.  He won't convince a lot, but in a neck-and-neck contest it doesn't take a lot.  Conversely, a heaping helping of fresh balderdash might turn convince a few percent to hold their noses and vote for Mrs. Clinton rather than hold their noses and vote for Mr. Trump.

I will Tivo it.  I don't think I could bear to watch it live.


For what it's worth, since our age is arguably as destructive
as the 1940s, here is a rough assessment by means of association:

~ If this be a straightforward contest, without a large influence of biased refereeing, Trump will prevail due to his more carefree attitude, and positions closer to
those of most Americans.

~ If either a confident and sober Clinton is able to lure Trump into harsh ['hateful] comments, or the result is not so overwhelmingly a clear win for Trump that
liberal bloggers & media cannot spin it far enough from reality, she will
~~~~~~~~~ Why?

[O]Donald J. Trump is Patton, i.e. great on the battlefields of life with proven victories -- wheeling & dealing in business, yet prone to be profane and also inept at traditional politicking.

[X] Hillary R. Clinton is Stalin, [sorry but it fits] i.e., unbeatable in her/his own rigged world, replete with polled/trigger words, propaganda, and mindless, ruthless
minions, but cannot survive objective scrutiny or merit-based assessment.

~~~~~~~~~ Also rans:
Bernie Sanders was a Trotskyite, i.e. a moderately disgusting slime ball smashed by more thoroughgoing scumbags;

Ted Cruz was Churchillian, so hopefully his time will come.

If Trump can suppress his true self he will win the debate (and maybe the election). If the Real Donald shines through, his attempt to attract fence sitters will fail, HUGELY.

Grab your popcorn.

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