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Questionable Conclusion in Prop. 47 Study:  A conflict between the data and the conclusion of a U.C. Irvine study to determine if California's Proposition 47, adopted in 2014, influenced the spike in crime which occurred in 2015, is examined by Michele Hanisee, head of the Association of Los Angeles Deputy District Attorneys.  Proposition 47 converted drug possession and theft crimes valued at less than $950 from felonies to misdemeanors, and reduced the state prison population by 13,000 inmates.  The study, by criminologist Charis Kubrin and doctoral student Bradley Bartos, concluded that Proposition 47 did not cause the crime increase.  Hanisee notes that the researchers did not look at drug offenses and larceny increased by 12% in 2015.  The U.S. Department of Justice reported that property crime in California increased by 7.6% in 2015, while violent crime increased by 8%.  Nationally, property crime decreased by 3.4%. This increase occurred in spite of the fact that converting crimes from felonies to misdemeanors makes them a low priority for police and reduces the incentive to even report them.

Oakland Coffee Shop Displays California Values:  For all of the past year, California's Governor, Attorney General, congressional and state politicians, and even mayors have been lecturing the Trump administration and the rest of the nation about "California values," which they will not sacrifice to enforce federal immigration law or anything else.  These values include protecting criminal illegal aliens, as Gov. Jerry Brown, AG Xavier Becerra, and Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf have made clear.  They may also include disrespecting police officers as we learn from a report by KCRA about an Oakland coffee shop which is refusing to serve the police.   Hawsta Muerte Coffee announced on social media that it will not serve officers in uniform in order to preserve the "physical and emotional safety of our customers and ourselves."  The coffee shop staff recently turned away an Oakland Police Sergeant.  One wonders what would happen if the local police refused to protect the coffee shop from criminals. 

4 Comments

According to the fact sheet on the study "Property crime trends appear to show Proposition 47 caused an increase in larceny and motor vehicle thefts, but these findings do not withstand sensitivity and robustness testing." What they appear to by saying is that while property crime increased, those increases were similar to increases in other, similar areas outside CA, and thus not attributable to Prop 47. I can't find the actual study so it is hard to know for sure but both you and Ms. Hanisee seem to be incorrectly characterizing it from the information that is available.

Saying that a finding that X is true "does not withstand sensitivity and robustness testing" is not the same as saying that it has been shown that X is false.

In my opinion, it is irresponsible to put out a "fact sheet" to generate news stories while holding back the full study so that others cannot judge what conclusions are actually supported by the data. When the full study finally comes out, it's no longer news.

That is a valid criticism. Hanisee says at one point she is quoting from the actual study but does not link to it so I don't know where she got it from.

Oakland Coffee Shop bars Police

Though not specifically mentioned for protection to my knowledge, is not the categorical barring of police officers "unequal" discrimination?

Cal. Civ. Code ยง 51
(a) This section shall be known, and may be cited, as the Unruh Civil Rights Act.
(b) All persons within the jurisdiction of this state are free and equal, and ... are entitled to the full and equal accommodations, advantages, facilities, privileges,
or services in all business establishments of every kind whatsoever.

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