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Prop 34 Support Surging or Dropping?

Ah, the strange world of political polling.

On Friday, the USC Dornsife/LA Times Poll showed the race for Proposition 34 (California's death penalty repeal initiative) to be quite close, as noted in this post.  The change was so dramatic from the previous LAT poll that the Times headline said support for the initiative "surges."  It wasn't that dramatic a change from the polls as a whole, though, as the Field Poll was similarly close, and the Business Roundtable/Pepperdine Poll showed just a 5% lead for the "no" side.

Well, the final installment of the Business Roundtable/Pepperdine Poll is out today, and it actually shows not a surge but a small drop in support for Proposition 34.  The trend line is here.  The lead for the "no" side has widened just a hair since October 11, and it now stands at 41.3% yes to 47.9% no.  The "margin of error" is 3%.  (That is actually just the 95% confidence interval on sampling.  It doesn't consider other sources of error such as methodology issues.)  The "unsure" vote comes in at 10.8%, and historically the voters remaining undecided this late tend to vote no on ballot measures. (See this post.)

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