Do you need Supreme Court precedent to establish a rule with sufficient clarity, or will on-point circuit precedent do? For §2254(d) there is no doubt. Congress explicitly said Supreme Court precedent. For the other two judge-made rules, however, the issue remains unresolved.
In Reichle v. Howards, the Supreme Court today decided one subsidiary question. Howards claimed that an arrest by Secret Service agents was actionable, despite probable cause, because it was in retaliation for his exercise of First Amendment rights. He had on-point precedent of the Tenth Circuit (the circuit the case was in) for that proposition. Easy case, right?